Odds table
The odds of each team reaching each round, from 10,000 simulations of the full tournament. Color goes from red (unlikely) to green (very likely), by column. Tap a column to sort.
| Team | Advances | R16 | QF | Semis | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸SpainESP | 100% | 72% | 52% | 39% | 26% | 17.1% |
| 🇦🇷ArgentinaARG | 98% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 23% | 14.1% |
| 🇫🇷FranceFRA | 98% | 74% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 12.3% |
| 🇵🇹PortugalPOR | 97% | 66% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7.7% |
| 🏴EnglandENG | 96% | 67% | 43% | 26% | 15% | 7.7% |
| 🇧🇷BrazilBRA | 98% | 62% | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7.3% |
| 🇳🇱NetherlandsNED | 92% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6.8% |
| 🇩🇪GermanyGER | 98% | 65% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4.4% |
| 🇧🇪BelgiumBEL | 96% | 62% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 3.1% |
| 🇨🇴ColombiaCOL | 90% | 51% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2.6% |
| 🇺🇾UruguayURU | 89% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1.9% |
| 🇭🇷CroatiaCRO | 85% | 46% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1.8% |
| 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSUI | 93% | 55% | 25% | 10% | 4% | 1.6% |
| 🇯🇵JapanJPN | 80% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1.5% |
| 🇲🇦MoroccoMAR | 87% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1.4% |
| 🇸🇳SenegalSEN | 74% | 37% | 18% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 🇪🇨EcuadorECU | 88% | 43% | 17% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 🇲🇽MexicoMEX | 91% | 45% | 17% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇳🇴NorwayNOR | 86% | 41% | 17% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇹🇷TürkiyeTUR | 81% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇮🇷IranIRN | 68% | 36% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇨🇮Ivory CoastCIV | 82% | 38% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇺🇸United StatesUSA | 82% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇰🇷South KoreaKOR | 72% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 🇦🇹AustriaAUT | 82% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 🇩🇿AlgeriaALG | 68% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 🇸🇪SwedenSWE | 63% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 🏴ScotlandSCO | 69% | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 🇨🇦CanadaCAN | 87% | 40% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 🇪🇬EgyptEGY | 75% | 33% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 🇨🇿CzechiaCZE | 68% | 30% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇵🇾ParaguayPAR | 63% | 25% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇦🇺AustraliaAUS | 46% | 16% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇧🇦Bosnia & HerzegovinaBIH | 65% | 27% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇬🇭GhanaGHA | 46% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇨🇩DR CongoCOD | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇵🇦PanamaPAN | 36% | 11% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇿🇦South AfricaRSA | 39% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇶🇦QatarQAT | 25% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇹🇳TunisiaTUN | 35% | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇨🇻Cape VerdeCPV | 30% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaKSA | 31% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇺🇿UzbekistanUZB | 31% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇭🇹HaitiHAI | 14% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇯🇴JordanJOR | 18% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇮🇶IraqIRQ | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇳🇿New ZealandNZL | 29% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 🇨🇼CuraçaoCUW | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |